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Thanks for writing such a thoughtful post!

This is the only unjustified claim and I think (also) the unstated assumption at the crux of differences in how people treat "incels" and other groups like them:

"Being sympathetic or nice might have an outside chance (however small) of reforming a few bad actors; we wouldn’t expect the same results from a stony lack of empathy."

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I think it's justified, but that's mostly because I looked at the situation and went "yup, it looks a lot like that's why incels exist in the first place". I do think it's a hard thing to prove one way or the other - it may seem like incels are bad because they only place they can go is bad, but it might be worse if the sympathy encouraged them or something.

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